Last week’s rally in the U.S. dollar was driven largely by weakness in the euro.
Italy was back in the headlines. The Italian government committed to borrowing even more money and, to the surprise of nobody with sense, the odds of default on Italian debt leapt higher.
Italian bonds are getting clobbered, and renewed concerns over the potential for a default now weigh heavily on the euro. Populists rose to power in recent Italian elections, promising to reduce austerity and increase government spending to stimulate the moribund economy.
Last week they delivered, passing a budget with large increases in a number of programs. The deficit there is expected to rise from 0.8% of gross domestic product to 2.4%, triple what was planned before.
The Italian government has already borrowed well in excess of the nation’s gross domestic product. The debt to GDP ratio is currently 132%. Those who own Italian bonds are right to be nervous.
When w
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