11:16 AM Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Devaluation Whispers Set Up Gold & Silver | |
Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed. A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries -- thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics. Instead, stocks fell and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.
It appears unlikely at this point that Trump will attempt to remove Powell from his position at the Fed. The bipartisan political backlash that would be sure to follow wouldn’t do anything to help his broader policy agenda on Capitol Hill. Trump still hopes to reshape the Fed by getting his prospective nominees to the Fed Board of Governors confirmed. The most difficult one will be Judy Shelton, who has often advocated for a gold standard but is currently calling for more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. She views easier monetary policy as a way to put the U.S. on a level playing field with the rest of the world as Europe, China, and Japan try to devalue their way to prosperity. One way the Trump administration could pursue a currency devaluation without any help from the Fed is through direct intervention in foreign exchange markets. Believe it or not, the Treasury Department has a slush fund set up specifically for this purpose. It’s called the Exchange Stabilization Fund. It need not check with the Federal Reserve or get permission from Congress in order to act. The Exchange Stabilization Fund has nearly $100 billion at its disposal to manipulate currency markets. And it’s all off budget. It reports to no one except the Treasury Secretary and President of the United States. White House officials have been quietly debating whether to deploy the Treasury Department’s resources toward lowering the dollar’s exchange rate. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reportedly opposes the idea. He has thus far persuaded President Trump to avoid direct foreign exchange market interventions. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will continue to stand by and watch other currencies depreciate against the dollar, thwarting his trade policy objectives.
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