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Race to the Bottom: What to Expect as the Fed Eases
 

How low will they go?

Falling Interest Rates

With the Federal Reserve all but certain to cut interest rates multiple times in the months ahead, central bankers are engaged in a race to the bottom.

As negative interest rates expand in Japan and across Europe, as long-term bond yields in the U.S. plummet, and as President Donald Trump continues to talk tough on trade, the Fed has little choice but to cut.

President Trump has effectively declared a currency war – and enlisted a reluctant Fed to help him fight it. He is convinced that lower interest rates will boost the economy and that a lower dollar will boost U.S. producers in international trade.

Over the past year, Trump has inserted himself into monetary policy matters almost to the point of obsession.

He has berated Fed chairman Jerome Powell, his own appointee, on a regular basis and conferred with White House counsel about removing or demoting him from the Board of Governors. In June, one of his Twitter rants likened the Fed to “a stubborn child” for refusing to undo its 2018 rate hikes.

Trump even went after European central banker Mario Draghi, calling his pro-stimulus (weak euro) policies “unfair” to the United States.

Central bankers insist they aren’t moved by political pressure. Regardless of how true that may or may not be, they ultimately are moved by pressures in the economy and financial markets – which, in turn, are moved by politics.

 

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