Investors have been well-trained in complacency. They have spent the past few years watching markets shrug off momentous geopolitical events – each more quickly than the last. Brexit’s impact faded within days. Trump’s election faded within hours.

Stocks traded at all-time highs this summer and volatility made all-time lows. That is the set-up as we head into the fall...

Almost nobody seems nervous. In this age of central planning and highly artificial markets, it is hard to tell when this period of strange market serenity will end. But vigilant investors should have a few ideas. The next few months are going to challenge the status quo.

President Trump Is Under Siege

It has been clear from the beginning of his term that President Donald Trump has very few supporters in Washington DC. Democrats and progressives naturally oppose him. Deep staters have been working hard to undermine the administration. And you don't need enemies when you have “friends” like John McCain, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan in the Republican led Congress.

Turmoil in Trump’s administration escalated last week. The president disbanded two separate business councils following the defection of high profile CEOs who disagreed with Trump’s response to events in Charlottesville, Virginia.

On Friday, Americans learned Steve Bannon, Trump’s Chief Strategist, was kicked out of the White House. That will cost Trump some support from his core constituency, who favored Bannon.

The president is already taking flack from supporters such as Ann Coulter. Bannon’s ouster leaves the President with an inner circle which is completely dominated by Wall Street insiders (with a history of supporting Democrats – such as Gary Cohn, Steve Mnuchin, and Dina Powell) and Pentagon brass.

Should a good portion of Trump’s voters stop backing the president, he’ll be in real trouble. And markets will start pricing that in.

Conflict with North Korea Possible, Even Likely

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un ramped up the rhetoric again late last week in response to planned military drills conducted by South Korea and the U.S. Should the North Koreans test fire another missile, the U.S. may well respond with force.

The generals advising the President appear to be succeeding in the effort to persuade him to get more aggressive. Steve Bannon’s departure signals that Trump has heard enough counsel for a less interventionist foreign policy.

The former Chief Strategist was one of few voices for restraint in the White House.

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